Just 10% of the public believe Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting, while 81% see the Tories as being in a weak state
Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has never been on solid ground, but her future as Conservative leader has come under renewed speculation in the last month, following the worst local elections result for the party on record. In recent weeks, the party has also posted its lowest ever YouGov voting intention result, while Badenoch herself has recorded her lowest net favourability ratings to date.
Just one in six Britons (16%) say Badenoch has done a good job as Conservative leader, compared to 51% saying that she has done a bad job.
While Conservatives are naturally more positive about her performance, just 50% of those currently intending to vote for the party believe she’s done a good job, while 22% say she’s done badly. And among all those who voted Conservative last year, the proportion saying she has done well falls to 42%, while 31% assess her leadership to have gone poorly.
When it comes to whether Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting, one of the central aspects of her job, Britons are even more critical. Just 10% of the public say she looks prime ministerial, down 4 points since February, while two-thirds (65%) believe she does not, up 10 points.
Even among current Conservatives, the most favourable group to her, nearly half (45%) say Badenoch does not look like a prime minister in waiting, outnumbering the 31% who feel she does.
Alongside this poor reception to her leadership, the British public also tend to suspect she won’t be around for long: just 25% believe Badenoch is likely to still be leader of her party by the time of the next election. Even among current Conservative voters, fewer than half (44%) think they are likely to get the chance to try and put Badenoch in Downing Street.
What state do Britons think the Conservatives are in?
But the Tories’ problems aren’t solely limited to Kemi Badenoch. Only 5% of Britons would describe the Conservatives as being in a strong state at the moment, compared to 81% saying the party is in a weak state, including 43% who believe the Tories are in a very weak state.
Even among those who have stuck with the ailing party, just 24% see the Conservatives as being in a strong state, while 65% would describe it as weak.
Despite the poor reception of Badenoch’s leadership, only 23% of those who believe the Conservatives are in a weak state say they are in a worse state than they would be under another leader. Instead, 62% believe the party would be in this state no matter who their leader was.
Having been overtaken by Reform UK at the recent local elections and in the opinion polls, the Conservatives’ concern is that they will be supplanted as the largest party of the right at the next general election, an event that could mark the beginning of the end for the Tories. Our poll shows that most Britons (63%) do indeed expect Reform UK to take a greater tally of seats at the next national vote, compared to just 22% who see Farage’s party as overtaking the Conservatives as unlikely.
Once again, current Conservative supporters themselves are pessimistic about the party, being split 44% to 41% on whether it is likely or unlikely that Reform UK supplant them as the largest party in the House of Commons at the next election. Reform UK voters are more optimistic of their parties’ chances, with 92% believing it is likely they overtake the Tories at the next election.
Would Boris Johnson win back lost Conservative votes?
For some Conservatives, the solution to the party’s woes is to bring back Boris Johnson, their last leader to win an election. Regardless of the logistical issues of a Johnson comeback, there are some ways in which the desire is understandable.
Not only is Johnson’s premiership well-regarded by current Conservative voters, with 69% believing he did a good job as prime minister, putting him roughly on a par with David Cameron (71%) and Rishi Sunak (76%), but he is the only recent prime minister which a majority of current Reform UK voters (57%) believe did well in office.
These voter groups also tend to feel Johnson would make a good leader if he returned, though the view is far from unanimous. While 59% of current Conservatives feel he would do a good job, nearly a third (31%) believe he would do a bad job, more than the number who give the same verdict about Kemi Badenoch’s current leadership.
Likewise, for the half of current Reform UK voters (49%) who believe Johnson would make a good Conservative leader, four in ten (39%) believe he would do a poor job.
And even though many Reform UK voters believe Johnson might be a good leader on his own terms, this doesn’t mean those who have defected from the Conservatives would necessarily return if he became leader. When offered the binary choice of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, just 15% of current Reform UK voters opt for the former prime minister, while 70% favour the Reform UK leader.
Nonetheless, this is a less one-sided result among Reform UK voters than when faced with a choice between Badenoch and Farage, where they favour the latter by 82% to 8%.
Among current Conservatives, there is less difference between how they view the two head-to-heads, with around six in ten (57-60%) favouring either Johnson or Badenoch, against one in seven (15%) preferring Farage.
Similarly, there is little evidence that a Johnson return would make a substantial difference in the contest against Keir Starmer. When faced between the two, the British public favour the current prime minister by 34% to 27%, figures which are effectively the same as the 36% to 25% seen in a Starmer versus Badenoch head-to-head when accounting for margins of error.
How do Britons feel about other Conservative leadership contenders?
Although a Boris Johnson return would not be a total solution to the Tories’ problems, more Britons and more current Conservative voters feel he would do a good job as leader than any of the other contenders polled.
Partly, this is down to greater recognition. Only around half of Britons (48-52%) have an opinion either way on the abilities of James Cleverly or Robert Jenrick, who were the other two main candidates in the leadership election Badenoch won.
But even with this caveat, there is an important distinction in the appeals of the two. Jenrick has greater appeal to Reform UK voters, who are 14 points more likely to see him as being a good potential leader (35%) than a bad one (21%), whereas on Cleverly they are divided 23% to 26%. The former foreign and home secretary, by contrast, appeals more to Labour and Lib Dem voters, with 25-26% saying he would do a good job, relative to 12-15% saying so of Jenrick (although overall more still think Cleverly would do a bad job than a good one).
Among current Conservatives, four in ten (41%) believe either contender would do a good job.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has sometimes been semi-seriously touted as a future Conservative leader. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he is the leading contender among current Reform UK voters, two thirds of whom think he would make a good Tory leader, though just 27% of current Conservatives feel the same, with half (49%) believing he would do bad job.
Belief that former home secretaries Priti Patel and Suella Braverman would make poor Tory leaders outnumbers belief they would do a good job among voters for all parties. This includes a margin of 36% to 25% among current Conservatives for Braverman and 44% to 31% for Patel.
See the full results here and here
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